FATE
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The AI terminal for financial event research.

Live, researched probabilities on the events that move markets, monitored as the world changes.

See how it works

Hedge funds

Quantified event risk across the book, before the market reprices.

Macro traders

A researched view on every print, meeting, and decision ahead.

Prediction market traders

A researched, monitored view on every market you trade.

Insurers

Forward odds on the catastrophe, policy, and macro events you underwrite.

By the time an event reaches the headlines, it is already priced in. The market has moved, the risk is already on your book, and the window to act has closed. Most teams still work this way: reacting to what already happened, with no researched view of what comes next.

Fate's AI system forms the view before the event, a researched probability that supports your decisions about an uncertain future.

How it works

See Fate work end to end, from a question to a monitored, priced forecast.

The questions that matter, surfaced for you

Ask any what-if yourself, or let Fate scan the calendar and your watchlist to surface the events most likely to move your book.

An AI analyst forms a researched view

It reads the sources, weighs base rates, and turns the question into a live, priced probability.

See the work behind every number

Deep research, key metrics, the distribution, and the channels the event touches, all cited.

Linked to what you actually hold

Monitor your tickers and exposures; Fate flags the events that touch them and the magnitude of each, so every forecast lands on your positions.

Monitor it as the world moves

Forecasts reprice in real time. You get the delta, the reason, and alerts on what you monitor.

Covering the events that move markets.

A sample of what Fate monitors, from rates and energy to geopolitics and equities. Each one researched, priced, and followed with the reasoning and the deltas as it moved.

One terminal for what’s coming

Every market-moving event in one terminal: priced, monitored, and explained the moment it moves.

Why it moved

Today+4.0pp

Powell's language leaned dovish; two regional presidents endorsed a September move.

3d ago-1.8pp

Retail sales surprised at +0.6% m/m; a resilient consumer pushes back on the cooling narrative.

1w ago+3.4pp

CPI printed 2.7% YoY, the third consecutive decline.

Track the delta, and what moved it

A dated log of every reprice: the data print, statement, or headline that moved the odds, by how much, and since you last looked. Never miss why a number changed.

Impact channels

Front-end rates-
Duration / long growth equities+
USD-
US 2YNDXDXYXAU

Nothing slips through

Rates, inflation, energy, geopolitics, equities, crypto. Every event that can move your book, surfaced and researched in one place, not scattered across feeds and terminals.

Fed Sept cut68% · ▲ +4.0pp 7d
Market-implied (FF futures)62%+5pp 1w
2Y Treasury yield3.61%-18bp 30d
Core CPI YoY2.7%-0.2pp
Payrolls, 3m average+96k-41k
Real funds rate (vs core PCE)2.1%17y high

Base rate

Fed cut after three consecutive downside CPI surprises (since 1990)11 of 14 · 79%

Evidence in hand

Key metrics, base rates, and the full research report behind every event. Fate hands you the evidence. The decision and the discretion stay yours.

binaryRates▲ +4.0pp today

Will the Fed cut rates at the September FOMC meeting?

68%likelihood

30-day trend

Resolves Sep 17, 2026Updated 2h ago · Medium confidence

A priced view, every type

Binary, numeric, date, and distribution forecasts, each with explicit resolution criteria and confidence, repriced as the world moves.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

What is Fate?

An AI research terminal that prices market-moving events. Ask a question about the future, or browse the events Fate monitors, and get a researched probability with the full report behind it.

How accurate are the forecasts?

Every forecast carries explicit resolution criteria and resolves against reality, so the track record is measurable. Fate is built to be calibrated: when it says 70%, those events happen about 70% of the time.

What events does it cover?

Rates, inflation, energy, central banks, geopolitics, crypto, and equities, anything with a resolvable outcome that moves markets. You can also pose your own questions and Fate will price them.

How is this different from a prediction market or a news tool?

News tools explain what already happened and prediction markets aggregate bets. Fate runs the research itself to form a forward view, with the reasoning, base rates, and a distribution attached to every number.

Who is it for?

Hedge funds, macro and event-driven traders, prediction market traders, and insurers, anyone who needs event risk quantified and explained before it happens.

Does it just answer once, or keep monitoring?

It keeps monitoring. Forecasts reprice as the world moves, and you get the delta, the reason it moved, and alerts on the events you follow.